Novak hears confirmed rumors Rep. Lewis could retire in 2008, Calif races could be key focus

posted 5.30.07 by Robert Novak at HumanEvents.com

Novak suggests California could be a major focus in Congressional races in 2008 with one possible pickup and a series of potential retirements currently being discussed (in some cases just rumored), there could be a large freshman class coming out of the Golden State next year.

• District 4: Rep. John Doolittle (R) is being scrutinized by the Justice Department. Despite his firm protestations of innocence, there is no question that Republicans view him as a liability and do not want to lose his heavily GOP seat because of accusations of impropriety. He barely won re-election last year.


• District 11: Republicans feel confident that they can unseat freshman Rep. Jerry McNerney (D), who defeated Rep. Richard Pombo (R) last year 43 to 37 percent in a Republican district under unusual circumstances. Pombo had to campaign under an ethical cloud and amid a strongly anti-Republican mood. Former state Assemblyman Dean Andal (R), who announced his candidacy this month, has represented about half of the area in one capacity or another for some time, and would be formidable against McNerney. Another possible candidate is Assemblyman Guy Houston (R). Both are conservatives.


• District 24: Rep. Elton Gallegly (R) decided to retire last cycle for health reasons, only to change his mind at the last minute and run. California Republicans continue to wonder what his '08 plans will be. The congressman may not be sure himself.


• District 41: Both on Capitol Hill and in California, Republicans say that Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) is unlikely to seek re-election. This despite the fact that Lewis is not currently the target of an inquiry, and there have been no new developments in the ethical allegations against him. Lewis won last year with two-thirds of the vote against a token Democrat. Lewis has not tipped his hand at all, yet talk of potential Republican replacements already abounds. Conservative GOP San Bernardino County Assessor Bill Postmus is said to be interested.

Republicans do not want to see either Lewis or Doolittle resign, because they do not want to spend money now on a special election. The money issue will also loom in the general election of 2008, but unless that election goes as badly for the GOP as last year's, Republicans can take heart in the fact that none of California's congressional districts is considered competitive. If there is anywhere you would prefer to have retirements, this is the state.

Representatives Ken Calvert (R) and Gary Miller (R) are also facing ethical questions -- respectively over earmarks and a federal tax dispute -- but they are perceived to be in better shape than Lewis or Doolittle. Still, as the 2006 election cycle demonstrated, this can always change with little notice.